There’s much speculation about the possibility of various clubs swapping picks.
For example, should North swap Pick 2 with Essendon for two of Picks 6, 7 and 8? Tge Bombers would be foolish to do this with only 31 players on their list. At the moment they should be taking Picks 6, 7 and 8 and their two academy boys, getting their list to 36.
I can’t see many pick swaps occurring – most clubs are better off taking the picks they presently have.
Looking at the lists of the clubs, there is only one team wit too many picks: Gold Coast. Brisbane possibly have too many picks as well, while Greater Western Sydney and Adelaide are borderline.
Adelaide Crows Adelaide have seven vacancies on their list and are committed to Jackson Hately in the preseason draft. Adelaide have four early picks, which they should take. Then they might have to match on Tariek Newchurch with Pick 40 and James Borlase after this.
North Melbourne Kangaroos North have five vacancies on their list and Picks 2, 11, 30, 39 and 71. If they were offered two of Picks 6, 7 and 8 for Pick 2 they should take it, but it won’t happen because it’s a stupid thing for Essendon to do. It may be possible for North to pinch an uncontracted player from another club through the preseason draft.
Sydney Swans Sydney have 36 players on their list. I assume they will delist one and then claim Pick 3 and their two academy picks. They have Picks 31, 34, 43, and 60, worth 1672 points. If Braeden Campbell and Errol Gulden go as expected, they’ll be a handful of points in deficit.
Hawthorn Hawks Hawthorn have five vacancies on their list and five picks inside the top 50.
Gold Coast Suns Gold Coast will probably only take one pick, presently Pick 5. Their other two, Picks 27 and 37, are likely to be highly sought after by other clubs.
Essendon Bombers Essendon have seven vacancies on their list and should take Picks 6, 7 and 8.
Carlton Blues Carlton has four vacancies on their list but no picks before 48. They are not in a strong position.
Greater Western Sydney Giants GWS have five vacancies on their list and five picks inside the top 30. Their sixth pick is 52. They should probably take their five picks.
Fremantle Dockers Fremantle have three vacancies on their list. They should take Pick 12 and their two academy picks.
Melbourne Demons Melbourne have four vacancies on their list and Picks 18, 19, 28 and 50.
Western Bulldogs The Bulldogs have 36 players on their list. they may take Jamarra Ugle-Hagan and not do much else.
West Coast Eagles The Eagles have 36 on their list but their first pick is No. 62.
Collingwood Magpies Collingwood have eight vacancies on their list and the best they can do is Picks 14 and 16 and Reef McInnes. They will upgrade Brody Mihocek and have two other rookies that played most games this year.
St Kilda Saints The Saints have 36 on their list and only one decent pick, No. 21.
Brisbane Lions Brisbane have 38 players on their list. They will need to delist at least one to participate in the draft. They have Pick 25 and then five Picks 53 to 69. There are two possibilities: they may intend to take Blake Coleman with Pick 25 or the best player at Pick 25 and match bids for Blake Coleman with Picks 53 to 69. In the first instance other clubs should trade for the 623 points that Picks 53 to 69 are worth.
Port Adelaide Power Port Adelaide could take up to four players, but their picks will likely be exhausted by matching for Lachlan Jones and Taj Schofield.
Geelong Cats Geelong have 36 on their list and their first pick is 51.
Richmond Tigers Richmond have 34 on their list and Picks 17, 36 and 61.
The only certainty is that Gold Coast will offer Picks 27 and 37 to whoever offers them the best deal. A second-round pick for 2021 would seem fair, but Essendon, Carlton, West Coast, Collingwood and Geelong would all have them in their sights.
I suggest Collingwood will trade next year’s first-round pick, for Picks 27 and 37 and next years second and third-round picks.